Data Energy and Climate Change Consultancy
Modelling future possibilities
The views expressed are personal views from people I have previously worked for. They do not represent company views.*
*The company does not provide personal references as a matter of policy
Reference - Neil Rowley
"Duncan is a capable, diligent analyst with experience across the whole energy system which span from the short term to the long-term time horizon. His modelling creates reliable perceptive insights"
Reference - Steven Thompson
"Duncan is a diligent, capable and innovative energy analyst. He is knowledgeable and conscientiousness with experience in energy forecasting, scenarios and climate change analysis"
Testimonial - Wayne Mullins
Project description
- Modelling to challenge the NOA process.
Background
- National Grid ESO run a NOA process. The NOA process gave a number of unexpected conclusions that National Grid Electricity Transmission wanted to understand & potentially challenge.
Actions
- Duncan project managed the creation of a model to replicate the NOA process. He ensured successful delivery of the ELSI (ELectricity System Illustrator) model by an external project partner (Baringa). This was delivered on time and to budget, and the model is now publicly available on the ESO website.
In addition, Duncan used ELSI to replicate the network constraint modelling for a series of reinforcements to understand the unexpected NOA recommendations in January 2017. The recommendation on one particular major reinforcement was successfully challenged. This involved modelling network flows over the next 20 years and the network constraints associated with them. He found that the power system modelling assumptions that were behind the recommendation not to proceed with the investment had not considered the possibility of constraints under certain conditions, which occurred the associated market modelling. Duncan evaluated the impact of this issue to establish the true benefit of the reinforcement. His insights were used to influence the Electricity System Operator to carry out further analysis on this part of the network during the next iteration of NOA, leading to the investment being recommended.
Result
- The next iteration of NOA recommended this major reinforcement should proceed. This reinforcement as a very important investment in the Transmission System for the overall benefit of consumers, and is now planned for delivery.Duncan's analysis was essential to this outcome.