Data Energy and Climate Change Consultancy

Data Energy and Climate Change Consultancy

Modelling future possibilities

Reference - Scotia Gas Networks

"Duncan’s granular approach, introducing new factors to specific elements within his analysis, has given us a better understanding of the reasons for demand changes which in turn has improved our understanding and confidence in our forecast. While a previous ‘top-down’ approach previously served us well for many years our changing energy system requires more detailed analysis of demand so we have a clearer understanding of where the many variables now coming into play are going to impact our on our forecast. Duncan’s ‘bottom up’ analysis, which is more transparent and flexible to changes, allows us to better align our forecasts with the wider industry analysis and inform what may need to be done to help the UK decarbonise."

Reference - Frazer Nash

"Duncan’s Network modelling ability quickly created network flows and constraints on the electricity system from FES scenarios, which were really helpful to our modelling project. His understanding of the modelling enabled us to understand and articulate the reasons for these constraints"

Reference - SHAP

"The reliability, energy knowledge, and modelling capability we experience from DECCC really helps move forward the fuel poverty and zero carbon transition projects that SHAP is involved in helped by a rapid grasp of client requirements and high quality technical response"

The following views expressed are personal views from people I have previously worked for. They do not represent company views.*

*The company does not provide personal references as a matter of policy

Reference - Neil Rowley

"Duncan is a capable, diligent analyst with experience across the whole energy system which span from the short term to the long-term time horizon. His modelling creates reliable perceptive insights"

Reference - Steven Thompson

"Duncan is a diligent, capable and innovative energy analyst. He is knowledgeable and conscientiousness with experience in energy forecasting, scenarios and climate change analysis"

Testimonial - Wayne Mullins

Project description - Modelling to challenge the NOA process.

Background - National Grid ESO run a NOA process. The NOA process gave a number of unexpected conclusions that National Grid Electricity Transmission wanted to understand & potentially challenge.

Actions - Duncan project managed the creation of a model to replicate the NOA process. He ensured successful delivery of the ELSI (ELectricity System Illustrator) model by an external project partner (Baringa). This was delivered on time and to budget, and the model is now publicly available on the ESO website.

In addition, Duncan used ELSI to replicate the network constraint modelling for a series of reinforcements to understand the unexpected NOA recommendations in January 2017. The recommendation on one particular major reinforcement was successfully challenged. This involved modelling network flows over the next 20 years and the network constraints associated with them. He found that the power system modelling assumptions that were behind the recommendation not to proceed with the investment had not considered the possibility of constraints under certain conditions, which occurred the associated market modelling. Duncan evaluated the impact of this issue to establish the true benefit of the reinforcement. His insights were used to influence the Electricity System Operator to carry out further analysis on this part of the network during the next iteration of NOA, leading to the investment being recommended.

Result - The next iteration of NOA recommended this major reinforcement should proceed. This reinforcement as a very important investment in the Transmission System for the overall benefit of consumers, and is now planned for delivery.Duncan's analysis was essential to this outcome.